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Teoscar’s BABIP was down slightly (.293, from .313). with the hard contact up you would think is BABIP would be up too.
He hit LHP (.246/.341/.493) much better than RHP (.222/.287/.462). Career he has been better against RHP.
With RISP he hit .315/.390/.707, which is pretty terrific
He hit about better at home (.240/.316/.514) as on the road (.220/.296/.431).
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Teoscar was much better in the second half (.259/.346/.592) than in the first half (.204/.267/.361).
Hernandez by month:
April: .217/.291/.337 with 2 home runs in 28 games.
May: .114/.184/.200 with 1 home run in 11 games.
June: .214/.276/.443 with 4 home runs in 19 games.
July: .284/.346/.662 with 8 home runs in 22 games.
August: ..224/.337/.513 with 6 home runs in 25 games.
September: .271/.238/.571 with 5 home runs in 20 games.
He was sent to Buffalo May 16th and came back June 5th.
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He played 635 innings in CF. He had a -13.2 UZR/150. We were told how much better he was in center than left. Well, I’m not sure that is true. He didn’t make any errors in center but then he didn’t get to as many balls as your average CFer would. I thought he was a little too careful at times, giving up on catchable balls.
In left, he played 356 innings. He had a 13.3 UZR/150. Yeah, that’s a positive UZR. It might be the small sample size but it’s a lot better of a number than last year’s -13.8. I didn’t think he looked all that much better in left. He made 3 errors in left.
FanGraphs has him a 0.7 runs better than average as a base runner. That’s much better than the -1.3 from last year. He stole 6 bases, caught 3 times, so that’s about even, so he must have been good running the bases at other times.
In games he started Teoscar hit:
Conversely, it wouldn’t surprise many if Luke Maile was non-tendered by December 2nd given the effective Danny Jansen/Reese McGuire platoon, plus top thirty Jays prospects at catcher in Gabriel Moreno, Alejandro Kirk, and Riley Adams. That would save the Jays an estimated $800,000 and free up a 40-man roster spot.
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My colleagues have contributed some great work on who the Jays should target in free agency this offseason, so I won’t go in to too much detail here except to say that, sadly, it appears unlikely the Jays will be legitimate contenders in the Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. Given the draft pick compensation (after the first round) associated with signing one of the players who received a qualifying offer, it’s also probably unlikely that Atkins will pursue free agent starters Jake Odorizzi, Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner, 1B Jose Abreu or OF Marcell Ozuna.
There’s has, however, been lots of discussion around top-tier starters not tied to a QO, including Hyun-Jin Ryu (MLBTR predicts 3 years/$54mn), Dallas Keuchel (3 years/$39mn), Cole Hamels (2 years/$30mn) Julio Teheran, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, as well 1B/OF types like Nicholas Castellanos (4 years/$58mn) and 28-year old Japanese posted player Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. There are great players available here; if Atkins can get creative, he could front load a ton of money now with the added payroll flexibility.
To illustrate why now may be the time to splurge on top of the rotation talent, note the Cubs added 30-year-old free agent Jon Lester on a 6 year/$155 million deal the December after losing 89 games in 2014. Two years later, Lester would go 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA over 32 starts (202 2/3 innings), win the NLCS MVP award, and go 3-1 over 35 2/3 innings that post season to help Chicago win its first World Series since 1908. Plus there’s no guarantee that top pitchers will be willing to sign with Toronto in the 2020-21 offseason when James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman and Jose Quintana are the best available free agent starters.
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MLBTR predicts that only one 2019-20 top 50 MLB FA will sign with Toronto this offseason: back of the rotation starter Tanner Roark for 2 years/$18 million. They see the same 2 years/$18 million being offered to Kyle Gibson and Julio Teheran, or one year deals around $8 million for veteran starters coming off injury like Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Michael Wacha.
There was an interesting MLBTR live chat with Tim Dierkes held November 5th on the top 50 free agents, with the transcript here:
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The key Blue Jays related comments were – no surprise – that Toronto is “not a top free agent destination, so they need to overpay to get guys. Like a second year for Roark, or a third for Keuchel.” In addition to saying he likes Keuchel to the Jays, Dierkes also said he “thought that if the Braves had picked up Julio Teheran’s option, the Jays would have traded for him” despite his “deteriorating profile, with so many walks and declining velocity” including a below average 89-90 mph fastball and 82-84 mph off speed stuff. Perhaps the Jays pitching coaches could get him to throw his 75 mph slow curve – with an above average spin rate – more than 6.4% of the time?
Dierkes thinks the Jays “won’t go hard” on Odorizzi, MadBum, or Wheeler. As for “low key” starting pitching targets like what the Astros previously found in Charlie Morton and Wade Miley, he likes Wood, Wacha, Brett Anderson, Martin Perez, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore, as well as Josh Lindblom who hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2017 with Pittsburgh, but has had success in the Korean Baseball Organization over the past three seasons. “Buy low” starting pitching targets include Lyles and Moore. And let’s not forget that Shapiro and Atkins may have interest in seeing if their former Indians starter Danny Salazar – whose best season in Cleveland was their last year there in 2015 – has anything left? Could the soon to be 30-year-old get an incentive-laden minor league deal, with an invite to spring training, given his injury history and only four major league innings since 2017? As for potential free agent 1B/OF targets like Castellanos and Avisail Garcia (2 years/$12mn), the Twins, White Sox and Marlins are seen in on them.
Rule 5 Draft on December 12th
A number of minor league prospects still need to be added to the 40-man roster by November 20th to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, like RHP Thomas Hatch, OF Forrest Wall, and 2B/3B Santiago Espinal. The Jays could non-tender reliever Derek Law and save an estimated $1.3 million and another roster spot, plus save another $2.5 million and roster spot by non-tendering utility IF Brandon Drury, who they could then re-sign to a minor league deal as a depth move? Or two roster spots by waiving Derek Fisher and Anthony Alford, who are both out of options?
Given 2020 will be another rebuilding year to assess players and see what’s available internally, plus the fact that the active roster expands to 26 players, will Atkins target another young arm like 26-year-old Joe Biagini in 2015 and 19-year-old Elvis Luciano in 2019? The Jays pick fifth. Remember the Cubs got former minor league starter Hector Rondon from Cleveland in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. He became their closer in 2014, with 77 saves over the next 2.5 seasons.
Jays Journal Contributor David Corcoran already took a great look at left-handed reliever options for 2020; with Tim Mayza injured and Buddy Boshers outrighted, Thomas Pannone and Anthony Kay are the Jays only current lefty options with major league experience. Assuming he won’t be chasing Giants lefty closer Will Smith who received a QO, could Atkins target a LHR in the Rule 5 draft? Or an OF like when Pat Gillick picked up George Bell from the Phillies in the 1980 Rule 5 draft, or when the Phillies drafted CF Odubel Herrera from the Rangers in 2014? We’ll know more about who mighty be available after the 40-man roster deadline for Rule 5 draft protection.
Trades have been an effective way to find aces and closers in MLB. Justin Verlander, Cole, Zack Greinke and Roberto Osuna were all acquired by Houston via trade. Detroit traded away David Price, Justin Verlander, and Rick Porcello. Tampa traded Price, Odorizzi and Chris Archer.
As we’ve already seen with Chase Anderson, Atkins is willing to use his payroll flexibility to add salary and club options via trades. Whether he’s moved in a 2020 trade deadline deal to get a better prospect than who we gave up in AA prospect Chad Spanberger, or whether this is a sign that the Jays front office is committed to upgrading their starting pitching talent, instead of signing placeholders like Jaime Garcia, Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson and Clay Buchholz, remains to be seen. It’s likely too early in the process to trade top prospects for elite talent, but the added payroll should give the front office options to get creative in upgrading their talent.
For example, the Twins traded for two years of control of 28-year-old starter Jake Odorizzi for only 21-year-old High A SS prospect Jermaine Palacios. Odorizzi made 62 starts and pitched 323 1/3 innings at a 4.01 ERA for the Twins over the past two seasons and stands to get a rich contract this off-season. The Mets got 1.5 years of control of 28-year-old Marcus Stroman for prospects Anthony Kay and 18-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson.
Ideally, Atkins will at least ask what it might take to get a future ace like Luis Castillo from the Reds or Noah Syndergaard from the Mets when they’re ready to move prospect capital? Castillo looks like a future Cy Young winner, will only be 27 in 2020, has awesome velocity (average fastball 96-97 mph, change-up at 87 mph and slider at 86 mph), is well above average on all Baseball Savant pitch mix metrics, and had an xFIP 3.48 and SIERA 3.95 in 2019. Wouldn’t he look good on our mound as Juan Guzmán 2.0?
So what would it take to get a future ace like Luis Castillo from the Reds? Something like a package of three prospects (including consensus top 100 prospect Daz Cameron) plus catcher Jake Rogers that the Astros traded for Justin Verlander? A package of four players, including MLB top 100 prospect J.B. Bukauskas and 2018 1st round pick Seth Beer that the Astros traded for Zack Greinke? Or the package of Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and consensus top 100 prospect Shane Baz that the Pittsburgh Pirates sent to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer?
As Jays Journal Contributor Tyson Shushkewich recently wrote, a creative use of 2020 payroll flexibility might be to take on a bad contract in exchange for players with high ceiling upside? Preferably Atkins won’t be helping AL East peers by taking on a bad contract like Jacoby Ellsbury or J.A. Happ from the Yankees, or David Price from the Red Sox.
Atkins could find creative ways to use that payroll space to get prospects along with a bad contract once Strasburg, Cole and Anthony Rendon are signed? For example, if the Padres are able to sign one of Strasburg or Cole after adding Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer in the past two off-seasons, maybe they would look to move an expensive contract like the $22.5 million due annually to 28-year-old 1B/OF Wil Myers through 2022, with a $20 million club option for 2023? He has a career .327 OBP which improves on the Jays .305 team OBP in 2019, and was a finalist for a Gold Glove at 1B in 2016, with 303 games played there in 2016-17 before Eric Hosmer was signed in 2018.
In exchange for taking on his contract, could Atkins ask for a young starter like Port Hope, Ontario native Cal Quantrill, who made 18 MLB starts in 2019, and pitched 103 innings with a 5.16 ERA, but an xFIP 4.53 and SIERA 4.58 suggesting likely improvement? He features an above average 94.5 mph fastball, 85-86 mph off-speed stuff with a slider and change-up, and profiles above average like Chase Anderson on exit velocity and hard hit balls percentage.
Or maybe Atkins can just use that budget to trade for former stars coming off of injury-plagued seasons, i.e. former Gold Glover Ender Inciarte from the Braves to play CF?
The next month through the Rule 5 draft on December 12th offers a clear opportunity for Jays management to accelerate their rebuild with talent upgrades via free agency, trades, and adding a player to the 40-man roster with the 5th pick in order of selection in the Rule 5 draft. They can also wait to see how the market shapes up and look for lesser talent ahead of Opening Day next March 26th, as they’ve done the past two off-seasons. Their ~$142 million in payroll flexibility under the luxury tax threshold and additional $50-60 million salary budget ahead of the 2020 season gives them lots of ways to be creative in acquiring talent, whether it be taking on a bad contract for prospect upside, buying out the arbitration eligibility of their younger core in exchange for more free agent years, or looking for players like Chase Anderson with club options that could prove to be valuable trade chips heading in to the competitive window from 2021.
Or Atkins could continue to have his coaching staff work with what’s already here in terms of in-house 1B/DH (Rowdy Tellez, Brandon Drury, Teoscar Hernandez), OF (Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Billy McKinney, Socrates Brito, Jonathan Davis and Hernandez), and pitching options (Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Nate Pearson, Wilmer Font, Sam Gaviglio, Thomas Pannone, Jordan Romano, Justin Shafer, Jason Adam, Derek Law), and then look to make bigger upgrades after the 2020 season?
If they can spend another $50-60 million on payroll this off-season, it’s possible Atkins could get:
a 3 year extension done for closer Ken Giles, taking him through the 2023 season
one of Ryu and Keuchel, and one of Teheran, Wood or Gibson as top of the rotation starters
Castellanos or Tsutsugo as 1B/OF options
Ender Inciarte (and his former Gold Glove in CF), or a salary dump like 1B/OF Wil Myers (former Gold Glove finalist at 1B) if the Padres included a young gun like Cal Quantrill
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An off-season like that would be a home run for Atkins and the front office given Strasburg and Cole are most likely pipe dreams, and Bumgarner, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Abreu, and Ozuna would all cost a draft pick after the first round. Now is the time to start upgrading the talent level of this team if the competitive window really is supposed to open in 2021 as promised.
9th: 7 games.
He hit in every spot in the order.
The Jays were 48-71 in games he started.
His longest hitting streak was 9 games. Longest on base streak 11 games.
Favorite team to face? He did well in interleague games with OPS numbers of 1.333, 1.115 and 1.472 against the Marlins (3 games), Mets (4 games) and Nationals (3). He hit .308/.308/.654 in 7 games against the Mariners.
Least favorite? He hit .063/.167/.063 in 4 games against the A’s.
The Jays were 50-61 in games he started.
His longest hitting streak was 9 games. Longest on base streak 14 games. Longest he went without a homer was 15 games.
His favorite team to face? Teoscar hit .276/.389/.690 with 4 home runs in 10 games against the Red Sox. He hit .271/.364/.646 with 5 home runs in 15 games against the Rays. Gotta like anyone hits those two teams well.
Least favorite? He had a rough time in inter-league play, hitting .154/.195/.308 in 14 games.
I’m not sold on him in center field. I think we need to do better there. I’m, as always, a Anthony Alford fan, but it seems that the team isn’t.
Teoscar is athletic enough to be a good outfielder but he turns 27 tomorrow and has played outfield since 2011 (when he was 18, in the Dominican Summer League), if he hasn’t become good in the outfield yet, I don’t see it happening now.
It is tough to give up on a guy who has that much power. He could DH, but then he’s going to have to hit better. He could play first, I guess, but that isn’t the position I’d want a guy who seems to have mental lapses far too often. First basemen are in on a lot more plays than outfielders. And he’s had 9 seasons (in MLB systems, likely more than that before) to learn outfield. I’m not sure he’d pick up first base in a month and a half of spring training.
It would be great if he could cut back on the strikeouts some. You have to be pretty good to successful if you strikeout 1 out of 3 at bats.
After his return from Buffalo Teoscar hit .248/.325/.548 with 23 home runs in 86 games. A full season like that would be pretty great, and wouldn’t care so much about how he fields.
I wonder if there is a 40 home run season in his future?
I’m still not a fan of the sunflower seeds thing.